Futures and Commodities Market DECEMBER 2007 Report

COMMODITIES AND FUTURES MARKET NEWS

[09.10.09]
Crude Oil returns to challenge $72 after larger supply reduction, IEA forecast, and weaker dollar, yet still ignoring ample supplies and the weak economy, while Natural Gas continues strong technical rebound after favorable EIA update. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said looking ahead, this market was obviously still searching for a bottom and that all technical indicators were still deeply oversold with the spot price now targeting $2.40 and possibly $2.36 before the shorts got anxious and began making their exit to lock in recent gains and value seeking longs begin entering the market to secure a vantage point.
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[09.03.09]
Crude Oil hovers at $68 awaiting key unemployment data tomorrow, stubbornly overvalued ignoring ample supplies and the weak economy, while Natural Gas settles at new lows for the year following EIA update.
Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said looking ahead although the new October spot was still grossly oversold, with the futures holding a hefty premium above it’s predecessor September that expired above $2.80, with the new spot trading almost $.40 cents higher, the risk was still substantial that the October would drift deeper into oversold territory before a key bullish reversal transpired.
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[08.27.09]
Crude Oil rebounds back above $72 blindly following stocks chasing the ghost of an Economic recovery Magically somehow without the Consumer, while Natural Gas reflects more the reality of Weak Industrial Demand, a cool summer and quiet tropics yielding the lowest expiration price of the year. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said under the current technical scenario looking ahead that I anticipated $2.80 to represent a short-term bottom, and since then the market did manage to penetrate this low intraday to the surprise of many market players, however never closed below this key support despite hitting $2.69 earlier in the session. Even at today’s expiration the September delivery short-covered back above $2.80 into the close as the sellers were forced to buy back to exit and avoid taking delivery along with some selling from disappointed previous buyers that expected higher prices by now.
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[08.20.09]
Crude Oil hovers near resistance at top of the range after sharp rebound following Large Supply reduction yet ignoring the weak Consumer demand outlook, while Natural Gas slumps to new 7 year lows despite lower than expected injection and is now grossly oversold. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said the technical scenario looking ahead with the market at new yearly lows for the spot contract that most indicators were now in oversold territory and yet the market was still in a weakened state searching for a bottom. This was confirmed as the market actually made new contract lows and yet exceeded my expectations by breaking and closing below the $3 benchmark which would normally appear to be a very bearish development, however, now the market is so grossly oversold with the upside potential far outweighing the room for further downside that a short-covering rally is eminent.
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[08.13.09]
Crude Oil remains on barrowed time ignoring ample supplies and poor demand while depending on stocks defying gravity and a weaker dollar in a desperate attempt to retain artificial value, while Natural Gas succumbs to it’s reality of heavy supply and storm disappointment. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said the technical scenario would test support at $3.56 scaled down to $3.40 before value based buyers may step in. I also said upside resistance over the near term at $3.80 with the more critical level at $3.92 were likely to contain rally attempts sending the market down to test the lower end of the range before a more sustained rally can be initiated. But more importantly and specifically I said the market’s behavior of expanding both ends of the trading range was rather reliable when looking at recent pattern history and so given that the upside range had already been extended the odds favor the market to test lower end of the trading range to expand the downside which is exactly what transpired with today closing at new yearly lows for the spot September futures and close to the continuation low of $3.22.
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[09.10.09] - Wall Street Journal
In Rising Crude Prices, Some See '08 Replay.

The rapid rise in the price of crude-oil futures, which touched $70 on Friday, is sparking fears of a repeat of last year's energy rollercoaster.

Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday hit $70.32 before closing down 37 cents at $68.44. Prices remain well below what they were a year ago, when oil was selling for more than $125 a barrel, but the climb in recent months has been even steeper than last year's.
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[08.06.09]
Crude Oil hovers near the year’s highs as the market extends the value charade for another reality defying rally based on the premature call for increased demand from future economic recovery, while Natural Gas drops after larger weekly supply and storm downgrade. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said the technical scenario would test support over the near term at $3.46, which held as values only managed to decline down to $3.56 since then and yet confirmed my upside targets by exceeding $3.92 climbing all the way to an intraday peak at $4.16 before pulling back sharply. After today’s price collapse technical indicators are now mostly negative with stochastics pointing South along with momentum relative strength and other oscillators suggesting more downside action ahead.
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[07.30.09]
Crude Oil recovers to challenge $67 after yesterday’s collapse in sympathy with stocks and precarious assumption for future economic rebound, while Natural Gas rebounds after weekly lows and EIA report. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said the technical decline had put a temporary ceiling at $3.80 to contain rebound attempts with spot August targeting $3.40 heading into expiration with the new September spot challenging $3.60 commensurately, both of which transpired yesterday.
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[07.16.09]
Crude Oil rebounds back up to challenge the $62 level on technical concerns and a weaker dollar despite the EIA report, while Natural Gas stages dramatic short-covering rally from technical lows. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said looking ahead, technical indicators had now resulted in a massive attraction of new shorts that traditionally precedes a sharp and dramatic bullish reversal. I also said if you follow the past price pattern of this market and when you add to this the quickly dissolving profit potential of the short-side when considering the continuation chart low at $3.26 was now within reach, in contrast with the growing risk of violent short-covering as the immense potential for gains on the rally looms larger, that looking ahead this technical scenario gave me high confidence in the final attempt to test the year’s lows would transpire within the next 3-5 sessions, if the existing lows were not already in place.
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[07.09.09]
Crude Oil rebounds back up to challenge the $62 level on technical concerns and a weaker dollar despite the EIA report, while Natural Gas stages dramatic short-covering rally from technical lows. Technical Outlook: Since our last report, I said looking ahead, technical indicators had now resulted in a massive attraction of new shorts that traditionally precedes a sharp and dramatic bullish reversal. I also said if you follow the past price pattern of this market and when you add to this the quickly dissolving profit potential of the short-side when considering the continuation chart low at $3.26 was now within reach, in contrast with the growing risk of violent short-covering as the immense potential for gains on the rally looms larger, that looking ahead this technical scenario gave me high confidence in the final attempt to test the year’s lows would transpire within the next 3-5 sessions, if the existing lows were not already in place.
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[06.25.09]
Crude Oil rebounds back above $70 on Nigerian Pipeline disruption and weak Dollar concerns as Iran volatility subsides, while suspending disbelief in the US economic meltdown still in progress, while Natural Gas recovers from short covering from technical support on lighter injection. Technical Outlook: Since our last report I said looking ahead, technical indicators overall have turned negative once again after the steep and volatile advance and values became grossly short-term overbought with the market now targeting lower support at $3.92 and then the more critical pivot price at $3.80 that will likely result in a rapid washout back to the weekly low at $3.65. Since then, that is almost exactly what transpired as prices took out both my initial targets and traded as low as $3.71 intraday yesterday, only $.6 cents from my lowest downside objective at $3.65 before recovering back up into the mid-range over the last 2 sessions.
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[06.18.09]
Crude Oil remains range-bound after retreating from my targeted resistance at $72.50 on Economic optimism and Iran’s instability yet still ignoring real supply demand, while Natural Gas slumps from advance fatigue and heavy injection. Technical Outlook: Since our last report I said looking ahead, the market was still in a bearish technical pattern that should find values falling back and possibly retest the week’s lows and even lower, however, I also said the time in the cycle was short in my opinion and if prices didn’t fall back below $3.70 again within the next 3-5 sessions, that I anticipated the market would ascend back over $4.0 soon and test $4.25 near within the same time frame.
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[09.18.08]
Crude continues rebound after hurricane Ike as the market now turns attention to the Financial Meltdown in the US, the potential international fall-out, and the inevitable toll it will take on the Dollar as it revives the appeal of Commodities in general as Investment Capital flees paper assets, while Natural Gas moves up range trade as longer term picture gets more bullish following storm disruptions pre-winter. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said with the market now holding a double bottom at $7.02 from which values would likely rebound from the near-term low that is now in place and since that low support has so far held, I said I anticipated a challenge of overhead resistance at $7.80 with a potential punch through this level to test the $8.0 benchmark which was confirmed by today’s intraday high at $8.32 before falling back into negative territory by the close.
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[09.11.08]
Crude test’s $100 despite the promise of further supply disruption from hurricane Ike as it enters the Gulf, while Natural Gas remains in bearish range trade as weather fears face-off against softening demand.
Natural Gas and Oil. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said with the market now holding a double bottom at $7.02 from which values would likely rebound from the near-term low that is now in place and we called for a test of resistance from $7.60 scaled up to $7.75, which has been confirmed from Monday’s posted high of $7.70 before values subsequently fell back into bearish range trade since then.
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[09.04.08]
Energy Markets Slump to new lows after Gustav leaves the Gulf with minimal damage as focus returns to weakening US Economy. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said that the longer-term picture is beginning to look more technically bullish as indicators remain still grossly oversold with stochastics, relative strength, momentum, the rate of change, the MACD, Bollinger bands, along with several oscillators exhibiting depleted value indications and yet we said looking ahead all technical indicators are still grossly oversold with the existing lows at $7.61 holding as a short term bottom that should impulse another test of the recent high range between $8.60 and $8.80 as we head into next week, however the market failed to reach this range after topping out at $8.32 on August 29 and subsequently broke down to new lows virtually testing the $7.0 benchmark with the market now holding a double bottom at $7.02 from which values rebound again today to close positive.
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[08.28.08]
Energy Markets Slump to new lows after Gustav leaves the Gulf with minimal damage as focus returns to weakening US Economy. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said that the longer-term picture is beginning to look more technically bullish as indicators remain still grossly oversold with stochastics, relative strength, momentum, the rate of change, the MACD, Bollinger bands, along with several oscillators exhibiting depleted value indications and yet we said looking ahead all technical indicators are still grossly oversold with the existing lows at $7.61 holding as a short term bottom that should impulse another test of the recent high range between $8.60 and $8.80 as we head into next week, however the market failed to reach this range after topping out at $8.32 on August 29 and subsequently broke down to new lows virtually testing the $7.0 benchmark with the market now holding a double bottom at $7.02 from which values a rebound again today to close positive.
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[08.20.08]
Petroleum breaks out sharply to the upside on Technical merits, Geopolitical concerns, and poor Securities outlook, while Natural Gas moves up in Sympathy on rebound from grossly oversold technical range. Technical Outlook: Since our last report two weeks ago we said that several technical supports had been broken and that a test of new lows below the then existing low of $8.33 basis spot could possibly lead to a temporary bottom at 8.10 to $8.20 which has since then been confirmed and exceeded with the existing low basically holding at $7.80.
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[08.13.08]
Petroleum Continues Consolidation in Range bound trade after support at $117 held as market weighs Weakening US economy against Supply disruption in Turkey and Iranian tension, while Natural Gas continues to follow bearish range in sympathy with Crude amidst mild heat outlook, quiet in the Tropics, yet remains Technically oversold. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said in looking ahead, that several technical supports had been broken and that a close back below the $9.0 benchmark was needed to cause a deeper washout down to test $8.60 which was confirmed earlier this week with the intraday low posted Tuesday of $8.33 basis spot and then again today at $8.48 before settling higher yet just below the key support to close at $8.57.
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[08.07.08]
Petroleum Continues Consolidation in Range bound trade after support at $117 held as market weighs Weakening US economy against Supply disruption in Turkey and Iranian tension, while Natural Gas continues to follow bearish range in sympathy with Crude amidst mild heat outlook, quiet in the Tropics, yet remains Technically oversold. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said in looking ahead, that several technical supports had been broken and that a close back below the $9.0 benchmark was needed to cause a deeper washout down to test $8.60 which was confirmed earlier this week with the intraday low posted Tuesday of $8.33 basis spot and then again today at $8.48 before settling higher yet just below the key support to close at $8.57.
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[07.31.08]
SEQ CHAPTER Petroleum Remains Range bound as Weakening US economy contains Rally attempts despite Geopolitical concerns, while Natural Gas continues to consolidate losses amidst mild heat outlook, quiet in the Tropics, yet Technically oversold. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said in looking ahead, that several technical supports had been broken and that a close back below the $9.0 benchmark was needed to cause a deeper washout down to test $8.60 which has thus far been prevented by the market’s failure to close below $9.0 and yet intraday has managed to test $8.81 basis spot.
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[06.07.08]
Crude Leaps Nearly $11, In Fresh Hit to Economy. Crude oil notched its largest price jump ever on Friday, leaping nearly $11 to more than $138 a barrel, on news of a weakening dollar and continued jitters over the reliability of world supplies. "Wall Street Journal".
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[05.29.08]
Petroleum Falls back under $127 confirming short term Momentum peak as US dollar rebounds and Gasoline demand subsides as Recession fears mount, while Natural Gas collapses in sympathy with Crude as weather demand remains mild and supply update is adequate.
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[05.22.08]
Petroleum Recoils sharply back to test $130 after Reaching Breath taking heights above $135 after another $6 range yesterday, as the market scrambles for Sanity and seeks Justification for clearly out-running fundamentals as momentum peaks short term, while Natural Gas Hits new highs following technical correction after supply comes in as expected.
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[02.14.08]
Petroleum Rebounds back above the key $90 benchmark on Large EIA drawdown and long-term supply concerns as OPEC output remains unchanged along with Economic optimism over US plans to freeze Subprime Mortgage rates, while Natural Gas rallies after higher withdrawal and Colder Weather Outlook.
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[02.07.08]
Petroleum Rebounds from Lows of the Range on Technical and Supply concerns Following EIA Supply Increases and further signs of Recession, while Natural Gas Strengthens Following larger than expected Draw-down and Winter Fears.
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[01.31.08]
Petroleum Challenges Upside of the Range Following Fed Rate Cut and Stock Recovery despite EIA Supply Increases and Recession, while Natural Gas remains firm on potential late Winter Threat Following New Record weekly Drawdown.
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[01.24.08]
Petroleum Rebounds from New Lows following EIA update and Stock market recovery, while Natural Gas Continues Bounce from recent lows from technical correction and milder Forecast, after increase to Supply Cushion.
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[01.17.08]
Petroleum Continues Recent correction on initial reaction to Supply increases in EIA update and more Housing induced Recession Fears, while Natural Gas Continues Range trade on Colder Forecast amidst Supply Cushion.
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[01.10.08]
Petroleum breaks Major $100 Price Barrier for the first time in History on initial reaction to EIA update and ongoing Overseas Tension, while Natural Gas breaks out from Bearish range on Severe yet brief Winter Blast covering the Eastern U.S.
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[01.03.08]
Petroleum breaks Major $100 Price Barrier for the first time in History on initial reaction to EIA update and ongoing Overseas Tension, while Natural Gas breaks out from Bearish range on Severe yet brief Winter Blast covering the Eastern U.S.
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[12.27.07]
Petroleum breaks out from Bull-flag pattern on Support from EIA update and Assassination in Pakistan, enhanced by thinner Trade, while Natural Gas remains in Bearish range from record storage and changeable Weather pattern.
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[12.06.07]
Petroleum Rebounds back above the key $90 benchmark on Large EIA drawdown and long-term supply concerns as OPEC output remains unchanged along with Economic optimism over US plans to freeze Subprime Mortgage rates, while Natural Gas rallies after higher withdrawal and Colder Weather Outlook.
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[11.29.07]
Petroleum Retests Lower Range after EIA Disappointment, concerns over Weakening US Economy, and Rebound in the Dollar, while Natural Gas Slumps after lower withdrawal and mixed Weather Outlook. Technical Outlook: Since our last report before the Thanksgiving holiday week when we said looking ahead technical analysis revealed mixed signals with stochastic and momentum in oversold territory yet still predicting further downside movement, meanwhile the linear oscillator as well as the MACD and parabolic continued to display a wide negative divergence and so overall the market is still technically bearish, the market reacted in kind by declining from the existing contract support of the new spot January futures which had been supporting the market at $7.80 and has now fallen too new two month lows hitting $7.38 today at the intraday session low before rebounding back above $7.45 at the close..
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[11.15.07]
Petroleum Retests Recent Lower Range after EIA Supply Increase, Yet Rebounds sharply into the Close on Continued Demand concerns of Winter, Overseas Tension, Weak Dollar, and Opec Defiance, while Natural Gas fell back following first Cold Season Reduction and Milder Weather expected next week. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead technical analysis revealed a mixed picture with several indicators declaring the market grossly oversold such as stochastics, momentum, and relative strength, and yet longer-term indicators such as the linear oscillator and the MACD, suggests a rather wide negative divergence still exists pointing to further downward movement ahead.
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[11.08.07]
Petroleum Recoils from Record Trade above $98 after profit taking from Mixed EIA Report, Continued Overseas Tension, Weaker Dollar, and Speculative Fever, while Natural Gas Collapsed after Bearish Supply Update and Disappointing Milder Weather. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead after such a strong run whereby the December futures has eclipsed a virtual vertical advance of over $1.20 in only eight sessions, the market has left some indicators such as stochastics entering overbought status which could attract profit-taking in the near-term.
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[11.01.07]
Petroleum Retreats from Record Trade above $96 after profit taking from Bullish EIA Report, Overseas Tension, Weaker Dollar, and Speculative Fever, while Natural Gas Moves up despite Bearish Supply Update as First Sign of Winter Approaches . Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead after the key reversal from below the 3 week support at $6.70 the technical outlook is more constructively positive, however, signals were now mixed with shorter term indicators such as stochastics pointing higher while the Linear oscillator and MACD suggest weakness while still others such as Relative strength and momentum were more neutral.
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[10.25.07]
Petroleum Settles Above $90 at New Record Close on Bullish EIA Report, Overseas Tension, Weaker Dollar, and Speculative Fever, while Natural Gas Moves up in Sympathy despite Bearish Supply Update and Mild Weather. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead, technical signals were now more pronouncedly bearish with stochastics, momentum, relative strength, and most short term indicators suggesting significant weakness ahead, with a likely challenge to minor support at $7.10 and in our conclusion expected prices to possibly fall back below the $7.0 benchmark this week, and all of these things transpired with values falling below the key $6.70 support level intraday before rebounding sharply this week back above minor resistance at $7.10 today.
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[10.18.07]
Petroleum Eye’s $90 with Record Close over Turkish Military Ambitions against Kurd Rebels in Northern Iraq and a Weaker Dollar despite Bearish EIA Report, Extending Overbought Condition, while Natural Gas Retreats Technically as Storm Threat fades and Mild Temperatures Arrive. Technical Outlook: Since our last report looking ahead technical signals suggest the market will likely rebound from support at $6.70 to revisit $7.10, and if penetrated on close would set the stage to re-challenge resistance at existing highs at $7.42 above. We said the technical parameters were fairly clear, with support and resistance levels preset at very exacting price points.
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[10.04.07]
Petroleum Rebounds Back over the $80 Benchmark Following Modest Product Reductions in the EIA Update, yet Storm Fears Diminishing, and Technically still Overbought, Leaving the Market in a Top Search short term, while Natural Gas Gains on Lower Injection and Firm Technicals: Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead technical signals suggest a more bearish composition. We also said most indicators such as the linear oscillator, stochastics, the MACD, relative strength, and others, suggested further weakness ahead whereby we anticipated a test of minor support at $6.80 with a possible challenge to more critical support...
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[09.27.07]
Petroleum Closes at New High above $82 for November Spot Following Bearish EIA Update, on Storm Fear Hype, and Technically Overbought, Putting the Market in a Precarious Elevation, Vulnerable to a Sharp Correction, while Natural Gas Retreats further on Heavy Supply, technical weakness and Storm’s Fading: Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead technical signals suggest a more negative composition whereby we anticipate a test soon of new lows within the range of $5.80 with a likely breach of this level leading possibly to a more critical test at $5.50, and that only a sudden rebound taking the market back up to close above pivotal resistance at $6.40 could return the market to positive action and a resumption of the short term up trend.
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[09.13.07]
Storm Concerns, and Technical Strength, as Gasoline gains on Refinery Obstacles, while Natural Gas Retreats on profit taking after Multi-month Highs, and Storm Threat Reduction: Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead technical indicators had remain mixed with the longer-term indicators such as the linear oscillator as well as the MACD and stochastics are over all exhibiting oversold signals whereas momentum, relative strength, and accumulation oscillators warn of further weakness ahead.
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[08.30.07]
Petroleum Trends up from the $70 level on Bullish EIA Update and Reduced Refinery Capacity, while Natural Gas Rebounds from year’s low on Technical Concerns: Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said as expected after such a sharp and devastating decline breaking through several support levels and breaking to new yearly lows, the market had taken on a new bearish configuration. The market obviously suffered a tremendous technical blow to the uptrend because of storm disappointment from hurricane Dean’s passing without consequence, and that left the market with conflicting signals in our opinion.
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[08.23.07]
Petroleum Trades at the sub $70 level on Dean Aftermath, as Gasoline Recovers on big Supply drop in EIA update, while Natural Gas Continues near year’s low after Storm Disappointment and in reaction to heavy supply and Mild Temperatures ahead : Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead technical signals were exhibiting overbought warnings to the point that we expected if the market could not manage to challenge or break above the $7.20 resistance point over the next 3-5 sessions, we anticipated a further decline back to test support at $6.60-$6.65, and then possibly $6.40 support levels before more buying steps in after some of the overbought conditions subsided.
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[08.16.07]
Petroleum Continues Enhanced Volatile Range as Traders Evaluate the Longer term threat of Economic Slowing against the short term Storm threat to Supplies, While Natural Gas Rebounds from early Stock meltdown on Supportive EIA Report as Dean Eye’s the Gulf: Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead technical signals were now stronger and that longer-term indicators such as the linear oscillator, the MACD, and the parabolic, all suggested further upside ahead. Meanwhile, stochastics, momentum, and the relative strength index still displayed some weakness over the short-term, and that given this mechanical outlook of a continued mixed forecast, we said to look for certain pivot points at the support and resistance levels to govern near-term direction.
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[08.09.07]
Petroleum Stages Largest Short term Correction of the Year as Sub-prime Meltdown Spreads fear of Economic Slowdown Internationally, Curtailing Speculative Perceptions over Energy demand, while Natural Gas advances on Low Injection after holding Technical Support: Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead technical signals were now mixed with short-term indicators such as stochastics, momentum, relative strength, and accumulation oscillators pointing lower, while longer-term indicators such as the linear oscillator, the MACD, and parabolic suggests an oversold status that invites buyers to accumulate positioning for an inevitable plateau to higher levels, in our opinion.
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[07.19.07]
Petroleum Closes Near $76 and New Yearly Highs on Total SA Force Majeure in Angola and Strong Gasoline Rebound after EIA Announced Supply drop, while Natural Gas Rallied in Sympathy and Improving Weather Demand Forecast..Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said the technical picture looked mixed as although stochastics, the linear oscillator, the MACD, and other indicators show signs of bottoming from an oversold condition, however, momentum and relative strength as well as other accumulation oscillators are indicating further weakness is likely.
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[07.12.07]
Petroleum Falls back to Support after Failing to Reach $74 Benchmark on Retreating Gasoline as Supply Increased Despite Restricted Refinery Output, while Natural Gas falls from Resistance on Milder Weather ahead. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said looking ahead we saw the technical picture was still weak with the MACD and other oscillators along with stochastics still quite negative, and that a continuation lower to test $6.40 and then possibly a washout down to $6.25 and perhaps even $6.10 was still in progress, but based on the time cycle must happen soon or the existing lows may hold.
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[07.05.07]
Petroleum briefly Penetrates the $72 Benchmark on Continued Refinery and Product Concerns, while Natural Gas Remains in Bearish Range on Disappointing Weather, Adequate Storage and Weak Technicals. Technical Outlook: Since our last report we said Technical indicators were as expected after the steepest decline in almost a year to be extremely bearish, with a wide negative divergence in both the linear oscillator and the MACD suggesting more downside action ahead. We also said to look for rebound attempts to find resistance at $6.80 and then $6.92, with a close above this level pivotal to neutralize bearish forces and eventually restore trading above the $7.0 benchmark.

[06.28.07]
Petroleum Breaches the $70 Benchmark on Strained Refinery Capacity and Product Concerns, while Natural Gas Slumps to 2 Year Lows on Disappointing Weather, Adequate Storage and Technical Breakdown. Since our last report we said the market was put into negative momentum whereby the stochastics, relative strength index, and especially the wide negative divergence on the MACD suggested further selling. We called for a near term challenge to $7.25, with a chance of follow through selling to test support at $7.10 and the $7.0 benchmark, based on the breath of the down move and considering the recent close below $7.60 for the first time since March basis spot was a very bearish indicator.
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[06.21.07]
Petroleum Approaches the $70 Benchmark on Nigerian Strike and Strained Refinery Capacity, while Natural Gas Retreats to 3 Month Lows on Disappointing Weather, Quiet in the Tropics and Technical Fatigue. Since our last report we said the market was in a recovery stage from an oversold condition and stochastics, and relative strength and other oscillators suggested a further advance was in order and to expect overhead resistance to begin first in a minor degree at $7.92 basis spot, with a more formidable barrier at $8.10, and that a more significant rally above this to challenge $8.25 per million BTU would require a bullish event.
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[06.014.07]
Petroleum Hits 3 Month Highs on Overseas Tension and Renewed Gasoline Supply Concerns, while Natural Gas Rebounds off Technical Support and EIA Update. Since our last report we said that while stochastics, momentum, relative strength, and other indicators suggested further weakness ahead, we did not anticipate the selling to penetrate beyond key support at $7.60 due to the breath of the overall move along with the buying forces that are likely to accumulate as the market approaches this level.
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[06.07.07]
Petroleum Flirts with $67 and Monthly Highs, as Gasoline is held Range Bound on Higher Weekly Supply and Demand Concerns, While Natural Gas Retreats from Technical Resistance and EIA Update. Since our last report two weeks ago, the new Spot July futures has failed to establish a close above the key resistance level of $8.25 per million BTU despite exceeding in intraday peak of $8.40 over two weeks ago. Today's retreat with prices falling back to critical support at $7.80 is significant and now has placed the market in a more bearish posture yet also in definitively oversold territory.
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[05.24.07]
Petroleum Falls Back to Support While Gasoline Rebounds on Supply Concerns and Nigerian Strike, While Natural Gas Retreats on EIA Update and Mild Weather. - last week we said, looking ahead, the strong close above the $8 benchmark now set the stage for follow-through buying and ultimate challenge of $8.25 level basis the spot June contract, and that we anticipated some short interest to develop on the first attempt to achieve this level.
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[05.17.07]
Petroleum Reaches New Multi-Week Highs on Gasoline Rally, While Natural Gas Breaks $8 on Technical Strength and Sympathy Trade. last week we said, looking ahead, technical indicators were now mixed in midrange as the Bowlinger bands and the parabolic indicated a negative posture whereby there is more room evident for further downside action, while relative strength and accumulation indicators reveal the undercurrent of the up trend.
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[05.10.07]
Petroleum Holds Support after recent Correction, as Concerns over Unleaded Supplies Continue to Push Prices Higher, While Natural Gas Remains Range Bound on Supply, Summer and Storm Fears. - last week we said, looking ahead, and following the bullish key reversal from the intraday low of $7.52, representing a two week low and then closing on a three-week high, that it certainly set the stage for a test of our longer term resistance point at $8.10 with scaled up resistance following this level up to $8.25 before we expected the return of more substantial short interest.
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[03.08.07]
Petroleum Remains Within the recent Range after EIA Report and Stock Market Rebound, while Natural Gas Falls back on Diminishing Winter. - last week we said, looking ahead although there are some mixed signals the overall technical picture was bearish with stochastics, the MACD, the linear oscillator, as well as momentum and relative strength all suggesting further weakness ahead whereby we anticipated another challenge to the Range bottom near $7.10 with a stronger probability for breaking this support and testing the more critical area between $6.92 and $6.80.
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[02.16.07] Dow Jones newswires
-By Jeanine Prezioso Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES.
DJ US GAS: Gas Rises, At Center Of Range, Waits On Weather.
HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures closed higher Friday boosted by a short covering rally ahead of a long weekend, and to guard traders against conflicting weather forecasts.
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[02.08.07]
Petroleum Threatens to Break Through Upper Resistance on Sustained Colder Northeast, while Natural Gas Closes at new highs in Reaction to Weather. - Last week we said, looking ahead, the technical pattern is in a short term up- trend and we saw some clear indications of bullish fatigue setting in on market forces, whereby we believe if the market fails to break above key resistance at $7.80 and sustain a close above this barrier into new higher ground over the next 2-3 sessions, we felt prices were vulnerable to a sharp and more formidable decline than the last pullback.
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[02.01.07]
Petroleum Breaks Through Upper End of Range following Saudi Output news and Returning Cold, while Natural Gas also hit new highs in Reaction to Weather. - Last week we said, looking ahead, the technical picture is now giving mixed signals, whereby longer-term indicators such as the parabolic, MACD, linear oscillator, and others were showing constructive resilience to the upside, however, stochastics, momentum, relative strength and other short-term indicators also suggested follow through weakness vulnerability.
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[01.25.07]
Petroleum Tests Upper End of Range following Surprise SPR Increase, while Natural Gas Exhibits Volatile Gyration in Reaction to Weather, Technical Selling and Short-Covering. - Last week we said, looking ahead while grossly oversold, the market was still giving mixed signals technically, and based on the slowing downward momentum, gives warning of a possible reversal soon. From our perspective, if the market failed to penetrate the $6.0 benchmark within the next 3 sessions we said there was a strong probability for a more substantial reverse rally back up to key resistancE above at $6.80 with a more realistic chance at breaking through to test
$7.0 this time in our opinion.
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[01.18.07]
Petroleum Testing Lows Following Full Spectrum Supply Increases, while Natural Gas Rebounds on Approaching Late Winter Cold. - Last week we said, while the market is giving mixed signals, as prices recently rebounded from oversold conditions, you'll notice the rejection selling from our critical resistance point at $6.80 again proved to be too much pressure for the Bulls, and that we now expected the downward momentum to continue over the next five sessions.
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[01.11.07]
Petroleum Continues Bearish Trade Following New Years, while Natural Gas Remains Contained to Bearish Range on Continued Abnormally Mild Weather Extending Deeper into January. Last week we said, while the market is giving mixed signals, as prices recently rebounded from oversold conditions, you'll notice the rejection selling from our critical resistance point at $6.80 again proved to be too much pressure for the Bulls, and that we now expected the downward momentum to continue over the next five sessions.
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[01.04.07]
Petroleum Continues Bearish Trade Following New Years, while Natural Gas Remains Contained to Bearish Range on Continued Abnormally Mild Weather Extending Deeper into January. - Last week we said the market was technically very bearish, and has now placed the new spot February spot in grossly oversold territory, however due to it’s inherent weather premium back above $6.10, the market is still quite vulnerable in our eyes to further weather induced weakness. We also said, it is very clear the market is feeling the dominating force of mild weather fundamentals which has taken precedent over technical factors, and thus contributed to an overwhelmingly bearish pattern.
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[12.28.06]
Petroleum Retreats into Bearish Range Following Christmas, while Natural Gas falls to New Lows on Abnormally Mild Weather Extending into January . - in our last report before Christmas week we said conditions had become more decidedly bearish given the retreat from the recent lower highs, and that technical signals from several indicators suggested further weakness ahead.
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[11.09.06]
Petroleum Moves to the top of the Range on Product Reductions and Opec Anxiety, while Natural Gas Continues Early Winter Volatile Range. the technical outlook was mixed, with some of the short term indicators as a little overbought yet some of the longer term signals still bullish. From this pattern we said to anticipate some range consolidation as likely whereby December spot would encounter selling pressure above at $8.10-$8.25, and that level would probably contain rally attempts over this week.
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[11.02.06]
Petroleum Remains Range Bound on lack of News and Slowing US Economy, while Natural Gas Experiences Pre-Winter Volatility. Technical Outlook: last week we said, prices are now somewhat overbought, with expiration and weather related selling possibly returning prices to test support back at $7.25 and $7.10 before consolidating further.
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[10.26.06]
Petroleum Retreats from the Upper end of Range, while Natural Gas Digests recent highs from a Cold October. Technical Outlook: last week we said, the market appears more constructively bullish, with momentum, relative strength, the MACD, and the parabolic and rate of change all suggesting further positive movement. We also said, however the weather will begin to dominate trade over technicals as we move closer to November and real winter cold in our opinion.
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[10.24.06] Dow Jones newswires
Futures Rally On Cold Weather. (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures reversed losses Tuesday as cold weather and a November contract buying spree drove futures higher ahead of contract expiration at week's end.
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[10.20.06] Bloomberg news
Nymex Natural Gas Rises to 8-Week High on Buying for Winter. By Geoffrey Smith Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas rose to an eight-weekhigh on expectations that cold weather this winter will boostdemand for the furnace fuel and cut down a glut of gas ininventories. Forecaster AccuWeather Inc. has said winter will be colderthan government meteorologists are predicting, especially acrossthe eastern U.S. Early season cold the past couple of weeks inthe central part of the country has stoked fears that colder-than-average weather may carry into winter.
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[10.18.06] Bloomberg news
Natural Gas Gains on Expectations Early Cold Will Boost Demand. By Geoffrey Smith Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas rose for the second dayin three as traders bought the furnace fuel on the expectationthat demand will rise as winter approaches. The benchmark contract has risen in the month of October 12out of 16 times since futures trading started in 1990.
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[10.12.06]
Petroleum Hits New Lows on Ample Supply, while Natural Gas Falls back, Despite Colder Outlook short term. Last week we said looking ahead that natural gas was more constructive with bullish overtones beginning to appear suggesting higher values ahead, and that we expected the next level of resistance likely to be tested above at $6.40 -- $6.65 basis spot, which was hit and exceeded with November spot reaching $6.80 before falling back sharply.
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[10.05.06]
Petroleum Continues Rebound from Support, while Natural Gas Attempts to Price in a Pre-Winter Low. last week we said looking ahead that natural gas was entering grossly oversold territory whereby we see the window for taking further profits from the short side rapidly dissolving. We also said to expect a near-term challenge for the new spot November futures to be first at the $5.25 benchmark, with further selling possible, however on rebound to look for some resistance and short reentry above at $5.50 with more critical rejection created if the $5.75 -- $5.80 level is attained.
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[09.28.06]
Petroleum Prices are Range Bound while Natural Gas Continues its Decline after Supply Update and Subdued Weather. last week we said looking ahead that natural gas was still bearish and that certain technical indicators such as the MACD, relative strength index, momentum and stochastics still reveal core weakness plaguing the market and suggest further weakness ahead likely to bring the market down further to test key support at $4.25.
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[09.21.06]
Petroleum Prices Rebound Moderately while Natural Gas Continues its Decline after Bearish Supply Update and Subdued Weather Outlook. last week we reported that natural gas was still bearish and that certain technical indicators such as the MACD, relative strength index, linear oscillator, momentum and the parabolic still reveal core weakness plaguing the market. We also said this suggested a challenge to new lows at longer term support at $4.50 -- $4.60.
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[09.07.06]
Energies make New Lows Across the Board after DOE Supply report, Relative Quiet Overseas and Anemic Weather Ahead in the Tropics. Last week we reported that natural gas was more definitively bearish and that without a legitimate storm threat that we anticipated prices to fall back to challenge $5.75 and then after breaching this level was likely to test yearly Lows basis spot at $5.45 before value buying stems the decline. This is exactly what transpired this week as prices today not only penetrated our target at $5.75 but closed below this settling at $5.71 after trading as low as $5.66 intraday.
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[08.31.06]
Crude Recovers on Iran's Defiance, while Natural Gas Continues Decline from Storm Disappointment and Cooling Temperatures Ahead. In our last report last week we said natural gas was more definitively bearish and that we expected prices to fall back through support at $6.45 and then test $6.10 and possibly lower, especially if the tropical storm Ernesto failed to threaten production areas. This not only transpired, but prices fell down through our target at $6.10 all the way to $5.97 before staging a mild recovery on close.
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[08.24.06]
Crude Holds Support after Gasoline Collapse, while Natural Gas Rebounds on Storm Hype. In our last report dated August 10 we said natural gas was more definitively bearish and that we expected prices to fall back through support at $6.80 especially if the resistance level at $7.60 was not reached soon. This not only transpired, but prices fell down through our target at $6.80 all the way to $6.45 before staging a sharp recovery.
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[08.10.06]
The Petroleum Complex Retreats from Pipeline Scare and new Sky Terror Threat Conquest, While Natural Gas Continues Volatile Range from Enhanced Electricity Demand yet Subdued Storm Activity. Technical Outlook: In our last report dated August 3 we said the natural gas market was now overbought. We also said the technical picture had become more definitively bearish as the market was gaining in its downward momentum in our opinion, and that the recent close under the key breakout level at $7.40 was a noteworthy bearish indication.
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[08.03.06]
Middle East Violence Continues Yet Petroleum Retreats from Record Highs as Events are Factored in Yielding Profits, While Natural Gas Ping Pongs from Supply and Weather. Technical Outlook: In our last report dated July 13 we said natural gas was displaying bottoming action that indicated the short-term correction was over and that a classic bullish divergence exists in the stochastic, linear oscillator, the MACD, and others, suggesting further upside price movement ahead. Only the momentum indicator and a few others showed hints of weakness within the technical framework.
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[07.27.06]
The Petroleum Complex is Range Bound in the Uptrend as Middle East Violence Continues While Natural Gas Rockets to New Highs on Record Heat Induced Withdrawal. Technical Outlook: In our last report dated July 20 we said natural gas was looking more constructive and that from the current pattern we expected a near-term challenge to the resistance level at $6.50, and that if breached could then quickly be followed by a test of our bull pivot price at $6.65, leading to a challenge to the $6.80 resistance level that we mentioned in our conclusion.
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[07.20.06]
Middle East Violence Continues Yet Petroleum Retreats from Record Highs as Events are Factored in Yielding Profits, While Natural Gas Ping Pongs from Supply and Weather. Technical Outlook: In our last report dated July 13 we said natural gas was displaying bottoming action that indicated the short-term correction was over and that a classic bullish divergence exists in the stochastic, linear oscillator, the MACD, and others, suggesting further upside price movement ahead. Only the momentum indicator and a few others showed hints of weakness within the technical framework.
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[07.13.06]
Middle East Violence Ignites Petroleum Complex to All-time New Record Highs as Bullish Sympathy Permeates Natural Gas after Technical Rebound. Technical Outlook: In our last report dated June 29 we said natural gas was overall bearish yet quickly approaching oversold territory whereby several technical indicators were already overextended to the downside. We also said the market was likely to take the spot August futures to dramatic new lows resulting from a retest of existing lows on the continuation charts at $5.75-$5.80, and within possibly the next 3-5 sessions.
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[07.13.06]
Middle East Violence Continues Yet Petroleum Retreats from Record Highs as Events are Factored in Yielding Profits, While Natural Gas Ping Pongs from Supply and Weather. Technical Outlook: In our last report dated July 13 we said natural gas was displaying bottoming action that indicated the short-term correction was over and that a classic bullish divergence exists in the stochastic, linear oscillator, the MACD, and others, suggesting further upside price movement ahead. Only the momentum indicator and a few others showed hints of weakness within the technical framework.
Read complete report

[07.13.06]
Middle East Violence Ignites Petroleum Complex to All-time New Record Highs as Bullish Sympathy Permeates Natural Gas after Technical Rebound. Technical Outlook: In our last report dated June 29 we said natural gas was overall bearish yet quickly approaching oversold territory whereby several technical indicators were already overextended to the downside. We also said the market was likely to take the spot August futures to dramatic new lows resulting from a retest of existing lows on the continuation charts at $5.75-$5.80, and within possibly the next 3-5 sessions.
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[06.29.06]
Petroleum Complex Continues Strong Gasoline led Technical Uptrend, Supported by Supply Update and Economic Growth, While Natural Gas Declines into Oversold Territory. Technical Outlook: last week we said several indicators were now bearish and to expect further selling ahead with a likely retest of previous lows below the $6.0 dollar benchmark due to the current negative momentum. This is exactly what transpired as the July futures expired yesterday at new contract lows touching $5.81 before settling at a new low settlement of $5.88. The new spot August contract also traded at new lows this week breaking below support today penetrating the $6.10 level intraday.
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[06.22.06]
Petroleum Prices Rebound on Gasoline Demand and Overseas Tension, While Natural Gas Returns to Bearish Supply Range. Technical Outlook: Last week we said the technical pattern was more constructive and that a bullish divergence lingered with a potential further upside test at $7.25 and then $7.40 remained possible with pullbacks likely to $7.02, $6.80 and even $6.65 to find support.
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[06.15.06]
Energies hold Support on China's Demand, and Supply data, while first Gulf Storm helps Ignite Natural Gas along with Elevated Heat Forecast.Technical Outlook: last week we said technical indicators were mixed yet overall bearish while approaching oversold status. We also said that a close above $6.40 resistance would indicate the Bulls have more ammunition and thus bring another challenge to the $6.80 highs.
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[06.08.06]
Petroleum Prices Retreat to Supply Increases, Iran Proposal and the Death of Al-Zarqawi, while Natural Gas Continues Bearish Range Expansion. Technical Outlook: Last week we said the tech signals were mixed and that we expected with longer term signals bearish yet some short-term indicators still positive, that new highs at 6.75 were likely along with a break back to 6.10, both of which transpired.
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[06.01.06]
Crude Falls Back in the Range on Diplomatic Rhetoric with Iran and Technical Concerns, While Natural Gas Rebounds from Oversold Territory on Storm Season Jitters. Technical Outlook: Last week we said the market was overall in a bearish posture, however, we warned about this markets characteristic behavior that lends itself to exaggerated upward price spikes, especially following a price break to new lows penetrating a major benchmark such as the recent breach of the $6.0 level.
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[05.31.06]
Natural-Gas Prices Settle Lower --- Early Relief Rally Falters.Natural-gas prices, which fell to a 15-month low before the Memorial Day holiday, gained some traction from an early burst of heat yesterday but gave it up near the end of the session.
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[05.04.06]
Energies Retreat from near Record Highs on Surprise Inventory Increase, Apparent Softening Gasoline Demand, while Natural Gas gets a lift from lower Weekly Supply. Technical Outlook: Last week we said the market was vulnerable to a price collapse from the overbought technical picture and to expect a further decline from the $6.80 level reached at the time of our last report, down to new lows at $6.50 -- $6.45 basis spot June futures, with the potential further washout down to $6.25 stated in our conclusion.
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[04.27.06]
Crude and Gasoline Prices Retreat from Record Highs on Profit-taking after Moderating EIA data and Political Rhetoric while Natural Gas Free falls to its Fundamentals. Technical Outlook: Last week we said the market was grossly overbought despite mixed indicators, and that if prices closed below $7.80 there was a vacuum below this level that could bring a test of $7.19 within the next week if resistance above at $8.20 was not taken out on close over the next three sessions.
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[04.20.06]
Spot Crude Hits $72+ on Gasoline Surge and the Natural Rides the Energy Wave to Over $8 and a Multi-month High. Technical Outlook: Last week we said the market was on track to test new lows below $6.50 with a potential to washout to $6.25. Prices failed by a narrow margin to reach our initial target as the lows last Friday only managed to reach the low $6.60s before short covering sharply on close. What transpired this week was a massive short covering in reaction to a unique combination of sympathy with Crude, weather fears and technical concerns.
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[04.17.06] Barrons' Dow Jones Marker News
Commodities Corner: Lower Still? There's an old saying among commodities traders that it takes high prices to cure high prices. If the corollary is that it takes low prices to cure low ones, U.S. natural gas prices may need to weaken substantially. Despite falling nearly 60% from their December peak to a recent $7.135 per million British thermal units, nearby gas futures on Nymex may need to go below $5.50 to soak up a surplus unlike any ever seen by the industry.
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[04.12.06]
Unleaded Supply Concerns and Increased Tension between the US and Iran Continue to Underpin Petroleum Strength, while Natural Gas Wanders in Weakness. Technical Outlook: last week we said that the existing bearish signals were more confirmed and that prices would be contained above at $7.10 up to $7.19 on close followed by a likely decline down to break below support at $6.80 for a potential to test existing lows at $6.45 -- $6.50. So far our scenario is unfolding as our first target to break $6.80 was confirmed last Friday and Monday, hitting intraday lows in the $6.60s.
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[04.06.06]
New Highs in Petroleum Complex on Continued Gasoline Supply Concerns and Overseas Tension, While Natural Gas Succumbs to Record Supply and Softening Demand. Technical Outlook: last week we stated that the technical advance will likely continue to test our upside targeted at $7.40 --$7.65 basis spot. April futures then hit a peak of $7.37 on expiration date, the 29th, before settling back at $7.23. This has positioned the new spot May futures within our targeted resistance band between $7.40- $7.65 with today's settlement at $7.487. While our upper range resistance level at $7.65 is still within reach, we see the market showing suspension fatigue with chances for further advance diminishing rapidly.
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[03.30.06]
Energy Rally Continues on Technical Strength, Iranian Tension, and Refining Challenges for Unleaded, while Natural Gas Stalls as Winter Ends. Technical Outlook: last week we stated that the technical advance will likely continue to test our upside targeted at $7.40 --$7.65 basis spot. April futures then hit a peak of $7.37 on expiration date, the 29th, before settling back at $7.23. This has positioned the new spot May futures within our targeted resistance band between $7.40- $7.65 with today's settlement at $7.487. While our upper range resistance level at $7.65 is still within reach, we see the market showing suspension fatigue with chances for further advance diminishing rapidly.
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[03.23.06]
Bull Trend in Energies Continues on Weekly Supply Update and Overseas Concerns, while Natural Gas tests Technical Overhead Resistance. Technical Outlook: Last week we said the technical picture had become more constructive and to expect a failure at resistance at either $7.40 or at the more critical level just above this at $7.65 to be quickly followed by a rather sharp decline back to support at $6.80 with a possible break below this leading to a rapid decline for an assault at the existing pivotal support level of $6.45 -- $6.50.
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[03.16.06]
Uptrend in Energies Resumes on Geopolitical and Technical Concerns. Technical Outlook: last week we said that natural gas showed mixed signals with most indicators still bearish yet grossly oversold and to expect a continuance of the subdued and rather narrow trading range. We also said that a widening of the existing trading range was likely to be extended at the lower end with a possible push below support to test $6.25 with a possible extension down to $6.10 unless a surprising short-covering reversal, produced a close back up over $6.80, which would be needed to temporarily neutralize bear forces and bring a test to $7.0- $7.10. Surprisingly the latter occurred and although admittedly not in the expected scenario, prices did takeout our upside resistance point with a vengeance as prices settled today at $7.26.
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[03.14.06] DOW JONES
Nymex Gains For Second Session On Short Covering . Technical Outlook: Natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange moved higher Tuesday in a second day of short covering. April natural gas futures settled 16 cents higher at $7.167 per million British thermal units. Futures have now rallied nearly 8% in the past two sessions on what most traders said was technically driven buying after futures failed to break lower on bearish news last week.
Read Dow Jones report

[03.09.06]
Winter Winds Down taking Natural Gas with it, while Petroleum Retreats on Supply Addition and OPEC Status Quo. Technical Outlook: in last week’s report, we forecasted that Natural Gas was caught up in a tug-of-war between bearish technical indicators and being grossly oversold, and that was likely to produce a boring, lackluster, and subdued trading pattern characterized by a narrowing range.
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[03.02.06]
Natural Uncovers New Lows as Winter winds down, while Geopolitical Tension Ignites Petroleum. Technical Outlook: last week, we said technicals were weak, and despite the positive bounce up to the $7.80 resistance level that we predicted, to expect a test of new lows at $6.80, and that a likely washout down to test $6.50 was still in progress. We also said rebound attempts were likely to be contained below $7.40 intermediate resistance.
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[02.23.06]
Geopolitical Tensions Counter Heavy Supplies, Temporarily Suspending Petroleum Prices while Natural Gas Tests Technical Lows. Technical Outlook: Last week we said prices for Natural Gas were still under bearish technical forces, and subject to testing new lows at $6.80 with a possible wash-out down to $6.50, near term. However, we also said clearly the market was grossly oversold with the short reward diminishing rapidly, and we specifically forecast that the market was vulnerable to a sharp short-covering vertical advance that if able to rebound prices back above the pivot price of $7.40, that a further acceleration to test $7.80 would immediately follow, perhaps by the next session. This was confirmed almost to the penny and just as predicted, except even sooner than we said with the price hitting $7.75 within the same session $7.40 was breached as the market then settled up over $.54 at $7.73, with $7.85 hit yesterday before the market gave up almost all of it’s gains of the previous day.
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[02.16.06]
Heavy Supplies Bring New Lows Across the Aboard on Energy Complex. Technical Outlook: last week, we said the technical picture was still extremely weak and based on the pattern, we expected a further decline to possibly tests new lows at $7.10 with a potential breakdown to $6.80. This week confirmed our outlook with our initial downside target taken out at $7.10 and also the psychological benchmark of seven dollars was also penetrated intra-day with a current low of $6.975, posted yesterday with a subsequent settlement at $7.066 and a new multi-month low. Looking ahead, despite today’s slight bounce to settle at $7.134 for a gain of six cents, we still feel the market is technically wea , and likely to continue on its journey lower to $6.80, with a potential washout down to $6.50 over the near-term. However, the market is in dramatically oversold territory, whereby the reward to the short trader is diminishing rapidly, leaving the market vulnerable to a sharp bull reversal.
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[02.09.06]
Late Winter Forecast Moderates, Reducing Natural Gas to New lows , while Petroleum tests Support on Supply Additions and Headline Fatigue. Technical Outlook: last week we said the technical picture was still negative, yet the market was being dominated by weather fundamentals. We also said to look for key pivot prices to be violated at either $8.10 or $9.28 to signify a more directive commitment to a trend. The market is still under weather fundamental dominance in our opinion , and this week confirmed our Outlook after violating the downside pivot price at $8.10. This quickly transpired , following a key failure at resistance at $8.60 , and then declined all the way down to new lows at $7.30 , before settling at $7.47, taking out our target support band at $7.50 – $7.60, due to the same reason we said would induce such a decline, that being a weather disappointment.
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[02.02.06]
Late Winter Threat Ignites Volatility in Natural Gas while Petroleum Corrects from Iran Fears and Supply Additions. Technical Outlook: last week we said a close above $9.28, the high close posted over a week ago Friday, would be needed to neutralize bear forces and continue a short-term counter-trend bounce to test resistance at $9.40. This transpired, mainly due to short covering Wednesday , induced from fear of cold arriving next week , which we will discuss in more detail in the next section. However , the rally quickly fizzled to a negative close , leading to further follow-through liquidation today from yesterday’s key reversal from the intra-day peak at $9.82, yielding the negative settlement below support at $8.347. Looking ahead , technical indicators are still negative over all, yet oversold, and we still feel the market is quite vulnerable to and mainly being driven by, weather fundamentals.
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[01.26.06]
Natural Gas Falls to New 7 Month lows on Continued Mild Weather in the Heart of Winter, while Petroleum holds Support after Correction.Technical Outlook: last week we reconfirmed the domination mild weather fundamentals could exert over the market, forcing the technical signals to remain as a following indicator. This week showed little change, and only reiterated our Outlook after the technical bounce from our support objective price at $8.60 failed to reach and hold above resistance at $9.40. Failure to attain this key bull objective resulted in a full retreat from Friday’s close at $9.28 in a price washout down through initial support at $8.60, and then $8.46 , followed by a subsequent crash through our support band objective at $8.10- $8.25, with a free fall, all the way down to key support at $7.75- $7.80, before short covering lifted values to settle at $8.229 today and right between our downside target band.
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[01.19.06]
Sudden Terror Threat Bolsters Uptrend to Petroleum while Indirectly Supporting Tech Bounce in Natural Gas.Technical Outlook: last week, we reiterated the fundamental hold the weather had over price action in natural gas, containing it to a subdued and weak technical trading range. This past week confirmed that Outlook and resulted in today’s new seven-month intraday low of $8.46 before short covering lifted values to a positive gain of $.21, to settle at $8.90. The technical pattern is looking a little more constructive with today’s higher close and now sets the stage for more positive follow-through from short covering due to the extensive oversold situation.
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[01.12.06]
Mild Winter Continues to Depress Natural Gas , while Iran’s Nuclear Pursuits Support Petroleum. Technical Outlook: Last week , we stated fundamentals were still dominating trade over technicals and containing the market to weak , oversold status. Looking ahead conditions are still the same in our opinion, and mainly due to persistent mild weather , which we will discuss in more detail in the next section. To confirm last week’s Outlook , whereby we said the technical indicators , suggested more selling ahead unless short covering emerged soon , and to expect a possible test of the $8.60 breakout level, the market settled below $9.00 for the first time since late July , at $8.94 basis spot. We still feel prices are on track to test this same $8.60 level , and soon, possibly tomorrow , given current momentum, and the lack of buying commitment.
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[01.09.06]
Wall Street Journal: Commodities Report Weather Is Playing a Bigger Role In Volatile Natural-Gas Market By Spencer Jakab Dow Jones Newswires 733 words 9 January 2006 The Wall Street Journal The U.S. natural-gas market, with its huge ups and downs, hasn't been for the faint of heart. Take its track record last year. Futures prices soared 90% from June through early September, crashed more than 20% in just a few sessions ending Nov. 4, soared 35% in the three weeks leading up to their settlement high of $15.378 per million British thermal units on Dec. 13, and then plunged 38% through last Thursday.
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[12.15.05]
Energies Decline as Natural Gas Turns a “ Cold Shoulder” in the Face of a Record Storage Draw Encouraging Technical Sellers. Technical Outlook: last week we stated in our report that we expect a rapid test of minor resistance at $15.75-15.80, and we also echoed this projection in an interview with the Dow Jones newswires on the same date of December the eighth. We also forecasted strong support buying on pullbacks first at $14 .75 , and then $14 .20 , which was confirmed as the low on Friday. Our upside target was pinpointed and confirmed exactly between our bracket with the intra-day high posted at $15 .78 on this past Tuesday , December the 13th , and right within the three session time cycle predicted following our report on last Thursday , December the eighth.
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[12.08.05]
Natural Gas Ignites the Energy Complex as it Breaks to New All Time Highs on the Impact of a Midwest Blizzard: Technical Outlook: Our last report , two weeks ago, while acknowledging the potential for another test of support at $11 .25 called for breakout above resistance at $12 .70 to be followed by an acceleration to $13 .50 which was confirmed this week. Looking ahead, under the current , extremely bullish breakout on the chart into unprecedented new high territory, there is only minor resistance at $15 .75 – $15 .80 by our estimation as the market has never traded at this level before and thus has no historic resistance to draw from.
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[11.17.05]
Volatility Permeates the Energy Complex as Winter is Eminent with Natural Gas Poised to Lead the Advance: last week our pricing model was again confirmed almost exactly to the penny as prices firmed from the higher low posted last Thursday at $11 .06 basis spot December. The market then , just as we predicted and within the three to five day session time frame called for, hit our upside targets first breaking resistance at $12 .06, and then closing yesterday, above key resistance at $12 .20 to settle at $12 .329.
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[11.03.05]
Energies Rebound Declaring the Post Wilma Correction Maybe Over as Selling Reverses, Except for Natural Gas, Still in the Grips of Technical Weakness: In our last report dated October 20th, two weeks ago due to the interruption of power failure from hurricane Wilma, we forecasted an extended sell-off that would bring new lows under $12 .70 resulting in a challenge to $12 .20 with a potential deeper decline to test $11.50 before longer-term Bull forces reemerge to support the market.
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[11.01.05] The Wall Street Journal
Energy Prices Fall, With Oil Settling Below $60 a Barrel --- Natural Gas
Tumbles 6.5% As Warmer Temperatures Create Shift in Sentiment:
NEW YORK -- Crude-oil futures in New York settled below $60 a barrel for
the first time in more than three months, buckling amid a selloff in
refined-product futures and unseasonably warm autumn weather.

The weather also played an early trick on the natural-gas futures
market, where the run-up to the heating season -- which officially began
at midnight -- has produced an astounding change in sentiment.

After rising 10% in one day last week, the past four trading sessions
have seen natural-gas prices give up 15% of their value, dropping
yesterday to their lowest level since Hurricane Rita plowed into the
Gulf Coast. December futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled
85 cents, or 6.5%, lower at $12.205 per million British thermal units.
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[10.03.05]
Commodities Corner: Gas Prices on a Tear By Spencer Jakab 3 October 2005 Barron's 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Both literally and figuratively, the natural-gas market has been hit by a perfect storm. Freakish spring and summer weather have helped prices double in less than four months. First, an unusually wet spring snarled a key rail line carrying coal to utilities, forcing them to run on more pricey gas.
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[9.22.05]
Energies Ignite the Uptrend Again as Rita, the Evil Twin of Katrina, Targets the Production Natural Gas and Oil Coast of Texas. - Last week we stated the technical picture was mixed and that we expected a challenge to the overhead resistance at $11.65 with a break of this level bringing a challenge to $12 once again. We also stated due to the momentum created by the victor of the resulting bull bear tug-of-war that a volatile and explosive price reaction would occur.
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[9.19.05]
DJ Rita's Apparent Course Poses Big Threat To US Gas Industry . Natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were sent to a fresh all-time record Monday as traders reacted to Tropical Storm Rita's more menacing trajectory.
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[9.15.05]
Natural Gas and Oil Energies Continue Corrective Trade as Katrina Recovery Emerges, Although Sluggishly. Last week we stated that technical picture had become quite overbought and that we expected the market to correct further if failing to close above $11.65 near-term, and to expect a test of new lows at $10.80 and possibly below this point on close.
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